Monday, November 23, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Seattle population could surpass San Francisco's

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Seattle could top San Francisco's population by 2040

By NAT LEVY
Journal Staff Reporter

The population of Seattle could top San Francisco's by 2040.

The Puget Sound Regional Council predicts another 1 million people will live in the central Puget Sound region by 2040. PSRC Executive Director Josh Brown said at a NAIOP meeting yesterday that at least 160,000 of those new people will live in Seattle.

Data from the city of San Francisco and University of California San Francisco show San Francisco's population is slightly less than 850,000. Seattle estimates its population now is 662,400.

Brown

Central Puget Sound — loosely defined by PSRC as King, Pierce, Snohomish and Kitsap counties — has about 3.9 million people today, and will grow to more than 4 million next year. By 2040, PSRC predicts the area will be home to more than 5 million.

The Growth Management Act requires much of that growth be in the largest population centers — with every city in the region taking a share — to avoid sprawl and preserve agricultural areas and forests.

Brown said the San Francisco Bay Area, where he worked as a real estate broker after graduating from University of California Berkley, has an “aspirational” strategy for handling growth but it lacks the GMA's teeth. Brown, who also served two terms as a Kitsap County commissioner, said the Bay Area's population today is about the same as when he lived there. Growth spurred by the continued success of Silicon Valley has spread out, creating a sprawling region.

PSRC is a long-range planning agency that works with cities and counties on economic development and transit. PSRC created the Vision 2040 plan to deal with growth.

All this population growth means more demand for housing.

“We will never be able to sustain the economic growth with reasonable housing costs in our region if we're not building housing,” Brown said.

But developers respond to market forces, Brown said, so construction won't always match up with population or income distribution. Cities around the region are wrestling with these issues, and the results can be seen in local policies like Seattle Mayor Ed Murray's Housing Affordability and Livability Agenda, which seeks to create 50,000 new units — 20,000 of them affordable — over the next 10 years.

The booming economy and population growth also increase traffic congestion. Brown said a recent PSRC survey showed 47 percent of respondents said transportation and traffic were the biggest issues for them. No other issue got more than 10 percent.

Around the region, Brown said there are more than 500 transportation projects underway and expected to be completed in the next three years, representing a $6.4 billion investment.

Voters approved another $6.8 billion for transportation over the next 16 years. Several other votes — most notably the Sound Transit 3 package in 2016 — could mean another $20 billion for transportation.

The region would be better off if many of these projects had been built decades ago, Brown said, but better late than never.

“We know a million more folks are coming here,” Brown said. “We can kick the can down the road to future generations, or we can be bold, step up and move forward with the next stage of investments that we know we're going to need for the region.

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Sunday, November 22, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Real Estate Interest Rates Improving

Interest Rate Pricing improves Moderately: Mortgage Bonds and stocks both started out the week with a bump better as money flowed in to the US markets in response to the attacks in France. It was a modest move for the better but continued a bounce away from the recent move higher. Also supporting bonds was continued tepid readings on the economy. Inflation came in higher than recent readings due mostly to increased rents and medical costs. The markets continue to digest a belief that the FED will raise their Federal Funds rate in December. There is a question on how it will affect the stock markets. It economic readings are strong enough they will likely improve in spite of the normal circumstance that increased rates will hurt stocks. With all factors considered there does not appear to be any pressure on rates to move higher or lower. Stability is not a bad thing as it helps your clients make reliable predictions on their housing costs.

"Why do you build me up Buttercup … just to let me down." The Foundations. The build-up to December's Fed meeting is mounting as Federal Open Market Committee members weigh the decision to change the Federal Funds Rate.

http://www.mmgweekly.com/templates/mmgweekly/reg_chart/555/images/top-image_2015-11-23.jpg

Minutes released from the October FOMC meeting stated "most participants" agreed conditions would be right—or already were right—to consider an increase to the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at their meeting December 15 and 16. This rate, which is the rate banks use to lend money to other banks overnight, has been near zero for nearly a decade.

Real average hourly earnings (post-inflation) rose 2.4 percent in October from a year ago, while consumer inflation came in higher than expected due to rising rent and medical costs. Both of these economic readings followed a stellar October Jobs Report that showed job creation rebounded and unemployment dropped to 5 percent. Based on these signs, investors and economists are currently predicting a 74 percent chance of an increase to the Fed Funds Rate next month, though this figure could change based on upcoming economic reports. When the Fed Funds Rate does change, other consumer rates—like home loan rates—might follow, depending on other market and economic conditions.

In housing news, after a strong build up in September, October Housing Starts were a bit of a letdown, according to the Commerce Department. Housing Starts hit a seven-month low, falling 11 percent. Despite the drop, Housing Starts remained above the one million mark for seven straight months. This is the longest such streak since 2007. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, were another bright spot, rising 4.1 percent from September.

Also of note, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index slipped in November to a reading of 62. However, readings above 50 are considered positive sentiment among home builders. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe noted, "A firming economy, continued job creation and affordable mortgage rates should keep housing on an upward trajectory as we approach 2016."

Despite the recent volatility in the markets, home loan rates remain attractive and near historic lows. If I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients, please get in touch!

What Is Going On In The Economy: US asset classes are receiving support from a flight to safety in response to the terrorist attacks in France and Mali last week. Concern over growing strength of ISIS is seem as a possible damper on European economies. Money is moving to us markets from overseas. This is causing increases in stock prices and rate price improvements. Economic growth in Europe is very week and the ECB is proposing another round of stimulus. Economic growth here is still modest at best with some indications that it is slowing. Oil prices moved lower which is not a sign of growth but hard to decipher with so much supply coming from new sources. New York Manufacturing index came in lower than expected. The housing markets still show strength but housing starts were lower in October from the previous month. October job report numbers were good with August and September revised higher as well. Market watchers think there is a 70% chance of a FED rate hike in December. The hike will be modest and the FED will likely make statements that will keep the markets from being spooked about stocks.

Real Estate Miscellaneous Stats

Recovery in Real Estate Features Change in Buyers: A Money Magazine article highlights some details about the market. Here are some bullet points and a link to the article. The national numbers show new home sales at their highest level since 2008. Construction crews are working at their highest pace since the 08 recession and builder confidence is at its highest level in 10 years. But this market is driven by a different buyer profile. 1. Median age has gone from 35 to 43. This is due to the slow pace of Millennial purchase. 2. Houses are getting bigger. The older families want more bathrooms. This is good for builder’s profits? 3. Student debt is not a hindrance to a home purchase according to a Zillow study. http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/21/news/economy/real-estate-older-buyers-more-bathrooms/index.html?iid=SF_LN

Economist Predicts Wage Growth in Seattle Area: University of California, Berkley Econ professor Enrico Moretti gave a speech this week for the University of Washington Runstad Center. At it’s leadership dinner Moretti highlights information from his book, ‘The New Geography of Jobs’. In the book he identifies the cities with the ‘right jobs’ and those with the ‘wrong industries’. Those with the right jobs show wage growth in most income sectors with each tech job creating 4-5 jobs in other fields from waitress to surgeon. Cities with the wrong industries have stagnating job markets with dead end jobs and low average wages. In the Seattle area he predicts wages will rise even though technology jobs make up only 15-20% of all employment. Economists point to wage growth as a key to s.ustained strength in Real Estate Markets. Moretti identifies housing development and public investment in transportation as other factors needed for sustained growth. See article here: http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/2015/10/good-news-seattle-youll-be-getting-a-raise-even-if.html

Area October Real Estate Numbers Indicate Robust Market: The Real Estate markets in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties sales were among the best on record in October. These numbers occurred in spite of a reduction in inventory of over 30% from last years low inventory readings. New construction is not keeping up with the growing demand. The availability of buildable land is one of the biggest challenges especially close in to employment centers. We are seeing strong numbers in the north and south end of King County as many are priced out of more central markets. This caused the biggest price jump in the suburbs in October. North King county median value jumped 17% to $449,950 and Southwest King was up to $297,824 which is also a 17% jump. The gains are spilling over to Snohomish and Pierce counties. Snohomish county is up 11.3% to $365,000 and Pierce is up 10.5% to $255.250.

New Snohomish County Back Road Attractions Tour Now Available For Free: For those of you who live in my area I thought this was a great resource. http://www.bothell-reporter.com/lifestyle/337635451.html

CFPB Cracking Down On Referral Arrangements: Industry insiders who are in direct communication with officials from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have been warning us of coming greater scrutiny of the Real Estate Industry regarding ‘pay for referral’ arrangements between title companies, lenders and real estate brokers. These pay for referral arrangements are not usually obvious as participants have become more opaque in their efforts to avoid detection and punishment. Now the CFPB has issued direct warnings about their intentions to look deeply in to marketing arrangements including MSA’s. Though many MSA’s do not violate federal real-estate settlement rules, the Mortgage Broker’s Association says the warning is clear from the CFPB. They view MSA’s as highly risky ventures often designed to evade the intention of the RESPA laws. Experts site examples of real-estate brokers requiring large payments from lenders and title companies in order to display their promotional materials or have office space in their location in order to access realtors. One nationally known legal expert on RESPA rules has said most MSA’s he has reviewed do not look good and likely will not pass CFPB scrutiny. Typical tip offs that agreements are in violation are marketing that is directed solely to the customers of a real estate firm rather than to the general public, payments for marketing that is not consistent with the level of services provided and payment for office space in a real estate office that is not typical for local commercial rents in the area. Individual marketing arrangements are also targets for review by the CFPB. They stress that any cooperative marketing be paid for by each party that is commiserate with the space devoted to the parties on the marketing materials.

Loan Program Of The Month. Private Down Payment Assistance Program: New American Funding has access to the down payment assistance program through the Washington State Housing Finance Commission. We also have access to a private product offered by a major bank. The advantage to this program is it allows for higher household income. In our area this can make or break financing for some borrowers. Contact me for details.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Snoqualmie Pass Living - Why is Paint such a Problem?

The Washington State Department of Transportation admits it's difficult to sometimes see the lane markings on I-90 over Snoqualmie Pass.

According to WSDOT, the pavement markings are made with glass beads, making them bright in headlights. But the rain reduces reflectivity so the lines are not as bright and visible.

Tell us about what's slowing you down

WSDOT also installed Raised Recessed Pavement Markers on I-90 from North Bend to Cle Elum. Unfortunately, those markers are less visible when the slots fill with rain or snow.

In 2014, WSDOT installed over 4,600 LED pavement markers along a 7-mile stretch near the summit in both directions. Since they are solar powered, the lights may not last throughout the night.

"We have tried many alternative striping products that are very expensive and or time consuming to apply. If we find something new, we are willing to test it, but we have not found a product durable enough to withstand the traffic and snow removal equipment."

Until the best, most cost-effective solution is found, WSDOT will reapply paint at least twice a year and when needed as conditions allow.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Snoqualmie Pass Living - Seattle is 4th Richest City

In this East Coast vs. West Coast battle, it looks like the West Coast is winning.

According to a review of data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloombergfound that the tech boom is shifting the richest cities in America to the West Coast. Three out of the top five land here with San Jose topping the charts.

Bridgeport, Conn., an ultra-wealthy suburb outside New York City where many in finance live, comes in No. 2, but San Francisco and Seattle follow, with Boston rounding out the top five.

Bloomberg looked at the nation’s 100 largest metro areas to crunch the numbers to see which city had the “highest output per resident” in 2014.

Apparently, tech is the new gold rush, with the gross metropolitan product, or GMP per capita in Silicon Valley at $105,482 — which Bloomberg cites is “more than double the national average.”

Seattle’s GMP came in at $75,874, but our neighbor to the south, Portland, is also seeing a large jump.

See the map of U.S. cities below:

Photo via Bloomberg/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

“Tech cities outside the Bay Area have also benefited from the industry’s boom. Helped by not only Amazon Inc. but also newer Internet companies like Zulily Inc., Seattle’s GMP per capita grew by a cumulative 7.9 percent since 2009, when the economic recovery began,” Bloomberg noted.

“That helped the Washington city catapult to No. 4 from its No. 6 spot in 2008 through 2011,” the report continues. “Biotech hotbed Boston also jumped two places since 2008, while Portland, Oregon (sometimes called Silicon Forest) climbed six spots.”

The Bloomberg report also states that these areas have “some of the densest concentrations of educated workers,” which helps drive GMP.

Of course, like yin and yang, here’s the bad news that comes with the good — “These emerging tech hubs will probably expand even more in coming years…Sky-high rents in northern California force workers and businesses to look elsewhere.”

Look forward to more traffic, and rising housing and commercial real estate costs to go along with that boom.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Snoqualmie Pass Living - Speed Retirement by Kicking the Kids Out Sooner!

Young adults should be moving up, but in many cases they're only moving back in. And it's threatening the retirement of their parents — both financially and psychologically.

The job market for young adults has improved steadily since 2010, yet the number of millennials living with their parents has continued to climb. As of the beginning of 2015, 26% of millennials (defined as those currently age 18 to 34) lived with their parents, according to the Pew Research Center.

For 25-year-olds in particular, the trend is even more pronounced. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report in September 2015 found 30% to 50% of 25-year-olds were living with their parents in 2013, depending on the state. All 48 contiguous states saw a rise in this "co-residence" between 2003 and 2013, with a median increase of 13.8 percentage points. The Northeast and West Coast had the biggest increases. (Alaska had a slight decline.)

For parents, the financial burden of letting an adult child move back can mean delaying retirement. Consider this: 52% of Boomer households that have children but don't support them are retired, according to a March 2015 study by Hearts & Wallets, an investment and retirement research firm. Among Boomers who do support adult children, only 21% are fully retire.

Boomers who support adult children are also 25% more likely (at 38%) than otherBboomers to say they have moderate to high financial anxiety, according to the Hearts & Wallets survey.

How can you avoid being one of these stressed-out parents who can't afford to retire? Two words, says certified financial planner Jeff Rose: "Tough love."

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Snoqualmie Pass Living - Better Cellular Coverage

Verizon wants to add a new communications facility at Snoqualmie Pass to boost coverage in the area, according to a conditional use permit application submitted to Kittitas County.

Cascadia PM/Verizon submitted an application for a telecommunication facility at Snoqualmie Pass. The operation would be on land zoned forest and range. The SEA Hyak site will provide coverage on I-90 between Exit 54 eastbound and the far east end of Keechelus Lake, along with ski lodges in the area, according to the proposal. The project would involve installing 12 antennas, equipment and the supporting base station at the top of the east peak chair lift at Snoqualmie Pass.

Verizon Wireless sites in the immediate vicinity are at or near capacity due to trying to provide service to customers in a poor coverage area, the proposal said.

Fiber optic project

In a separate application, Zayo Group is seeking a permit for an unmanned, concrete communications shelter east of Kittitas at 12800 Vantage Highway. The operation is located on a parcel zoned agricultural 20. The project will support an adjacent fiber-optic utility owned by Zayo, according to materials submitted to the county.

Saturday, November 7, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Snoqualmie Pass Living - Specialty Pizza Shop!

www.snoqualmiepassliving.com

Specialty pizza shop at Pass in business

Nov 6, 2015 at 8:00AM

Pie For the People NW located inside Lee’s Summit Grocery in Snoqualmie Pass, is the sister shop to Pie for the People SW, located in Joshua Tree, Calif.

Open since February 2015, Craig Austin and family, who run the shop, make their dough by hand, from a secret recipe. Each pie is hand-tossed and topped with local ingredients.

Pie for the People NW is open daily from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m., closing at 8 p.m. Sundays. Find Pie for the People NW on Facebook.

Friday, November 6, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - Snoqualmie Pass Living - El Nino Ski Year?

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'Godzilla' El Nino not really a death sentence for local ski resorts

By Scott Sistek Published: Nov 5, 2015 at 3:40 AM PST Last Updated: Nov 5, 2015 at 1:44 PM PST

News sites (and weather blogs) have been filled with stories about how the raging El Niño in the South-Central Pacific Ocean is set to rival, if not surpass the strongest event on record in 1997 and have accompanied daunting forecasts of what could happen in El Niño years.

For the Pacific Northwest, El Niño years have typically meant warmer and drier winters with less than average mountain snowpacks, and the long range forecastshave been consistently trending that way. So much so that it's become somewhat of a tradition in this weather blog to have cute "Emergency Kitten" video therapy for snow lovers who happen upon the forecast.

And as you might imagine, after the worst ski season on record (by far!) at some of the Washington ski resorts last winter, skiers are understandably gloomy about this season's prospects and in turn, the ski resorts themselves have to feel a bit gloomy about that.

But does Super Godzilla / Bruce Lee El Niño really a death sentence for local ski resorts to have a second year of bare ski runs and shuttered lifts?

Not necessarily.

First, let's talk about just how bad last season was. Snoqualmie Pass had a total of 104 inches of snow for the entire 2014-15 winter season (as measured by the WSDOT at the base of the ski resort/top of the I-90 pass.) Some seasons up there, 104" is called "three weeks in January."

That was almost half of the previous record low of 191 inches in 1976-77! Or put another way, about 24 percent of normal. The resort had to close three times, losing 40 of their 100 guaranteed snow days.

The conditions set forth to bring such low totals was a confluence of very rare events not seen in at least several decades -- a super warm pool of ocean waters offshore (known affectionately as "The Blob") combined with a very persistent ridge of high pressure. It kept temperatures much warmer than normal -- December, February and March were all the warmest on record in Seattle, and January was No. 5.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate - U.S Home Values and Rents

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US home values and rents steadily rising in a resilient housing market

FILE - In this July 22, 2015 file photo, a "sold" sign is posted outside a Harbor Beach neighborhood home in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Standard & Poor’s releases its 20-city home price index for August on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee, File)

Associated PressOct. 27, 2015 | 12:20 p.m. EDT+ More

By JOSH BOAK and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. housing appears to be insulated so far from the cooling global economy.

Home values and rental prices are steadily rising, fueled by strong demand and a tight supply of available properties, a pair of reports Tuesday showed. The solid demand drove sales growth early this year and spurred additional construction.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index climbed 5.1 percent in the 12 months that ended in August — a level many economists view as more sustainable than the sharp double-digit gains at the start of 2014.

And in September, median rents nationwide rose a seasonally adjusted 3.7 percent from a year ago, according to real estate data firm Zillow. As with home prices, the pace of rent increases appears more stable than the sharper increases earlier this year.

Still, while three years of solid hiring and low mortgage rates have bolstered real estate, further gains will likely require better pay for workers. Increases in home values continue to exceed average annual earnings, which have risen just 2.2 percent from a year ago.

For now, homes in tech hubs with a high concentration of good-paying jobs appear to be the main beneficiaries of rising prices. S&P reported that San Francisco and Denver both enjoyed a 10.7 percent year-over-year jump in home values, the largest of any city. Portland, Oregon's annual gain of 9.4 percent was the third-largest.

"Prices are rising the fastest in markets where job growth and net migration are the strongest and inventories are the tightest," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "Portland is an excellent example."

Those same metro areas were among the leaders in the rental increases tracked by Zillow. At the same time, those high rental prices sparked some new construction, which has created more apartments and tempered the rental-price appreciation in recent months.

The median rent in San Francisco was $3,348 last month, a yearly increase of 13.3 percent. The year-over-year increase in August was even higher — 14.2 percent.

The housing market's overall gains are defying the impact of a sluggish global economy. Falling commodity prices, weakened growth in China, a struggling Europe and tumult in emerging economies such as Brazil have hampered a world that is still battling its way out of the 2008 financial crisis.

Not every area of the United States is benefiting. Rental price growth has slowed in areas at the epicenter of the oil and natural gas industry, according to Zillow. Average oil prices have nearly halved in the past year to $44 a barrel. Houston's rental costs are up 5.8 percent over the past 12 months, down from annual growth above 6 percent. Price appreciation has also slipped in Dallas and Tulsa.

But the S&P index shows that home values have advanced a solid 8.9 percent in Dallas over the past year, a sign of resilience in the heart of Texas.

Overall in the United States, the housing sector has expanded for much of 2015. Sales of existing homes jumped 4.7 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million, the National Association of Realtors said last week.

The pace of home construction rose in September and is up 12 percent so far this year compared with 2014. But the bulk of the growth has been fueled by condominiums and apartment buildings. Single-family-home construction — the heart of the housing market — was flat in September.

That reflects a greater preference for renting rather than home-buying since the Great Recession, which has reduced the percentage of Americans who own homes to nearly a 48-year low of 63.7 percent.

Home values are rising largely because few properties are being listed for sale. The number of existing homes for sale has fallen 3.1 percent in the past 12 months. In September, the number of available homes was equal to just 4.8 months' of sales, below the six months' supply that is typical of a balanced market.