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National home prices climbed to all-time highs in October as real estate hot spots continue to send housing costs skyrocketing.
The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index on Tuesday showed real estate values climb 5.6 percent from October 2015. That outpaces September's 5.4 percent annual increase and sent the metric to never-before-seen highs – surpassing even what was reached during the housing bubble of the mid-2000s.
This is now the second-consecutive month that the home prices have reached all-time highs. The national index was driven largely by gains out West – particularly in Seattle, Portland and Denver, where home values are up 10.7 percent, 10.3 percent and 8.3 percent on the year, respectively.
A separate price tracker published by Black Knight Financial Services also showed a 5.6-percent annual gain in October, similarly noting that the three cities "continue to outperform."
The Black Knight index also breaks down price gains at the state and metropolitan area level. California, Texas, Florida and New York saw the largest monthly state-wide price gains between September and October. Eight of the top 10 metro areas with the largest monthly gains were located in Florida. And the top 5 metros that saw the largest price declines over the month were all situated in Alabama.
Still, the Black Knight report indicates eight of the 20 largest states and 15 of the 40 largest metro areas in the country have seen post-recessionary home prices eclipse what was reached during the bubble years.
"Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers," David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement Tuesday. "However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to outpace gains in wages and personal income."
Mortgage costs are also expected to rise as the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate in the months ahead. America's central bank managed to only get one hike out of 2016 – its second in a decade – but Fed officials earlier this month projected they'd be able to get as many as three increases out of 2017.
Each increase is expected to be marginal and will only impact mortgages slightly. But once they start accumulating, it's expected that mortgage rates will gradually tick higher. And that's not particularly good news for first-time homebuyers.
"Rapid growth in home prices may not be welcome news for those struggling to save to buy a home, and coupled with rising interest rates in coming years, some consumers may begin to feel the pinch of worsening affordability, especially in pricier coastal markets," Svenja Gudell, chief economist at real estate hub Zillow, said in a statement Tuesday.
Gudell notes, though, that "rapidly rising national home values themselves should not be confused with a widespread, rapidly inflating national housing bubble." That bubble was fueled in part by risky lending packages that are not believed to be nearly as prevalent today. She says that alarm bells shouldn't be sounded simply because home prices are eclipsing values reached during the bubble days.
"History is not repeating itself, and there is little risk of that happening as long as the national market continues to be driven by fundamentals," she said.
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